Why you should parlay Iga Swiatek and Carlos Alcaraz in the Indian Wells finals

Swiatek and Carlos Alcaraz

The underdogs will want revenge; you'll want to back the favorites in a big way.

On Sunday, we’ll get a pair of championship matchups at the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells. The day will start with Maria Sakkari taking on Iga Swiatek, and it’ll end with Daniil Medvedev facing Carlos Alcaraz. Both of these matchups happen to be rematches of previous Indian Wells finals, as Swiatek downed Sakkari in the desert in 2022, and Alcaraz beat Medvedev last year. And while both of the players that lost those past matchups will want some revenge, the best way to bet both of these matches is by pairing them together and putting the favorites in a moneyline parlay.

With the women’s final, it’s hard to ignore that Sakkari hasn’t taken a set from Swiatek since 2021. I know Sakkari has played some much better tennis this week than she has all year, and the Greek star finally has some confidence back. But it’s hard to see where she has a clear edge over Swiatek. The Pole is a better server, returner and baseline player, and she’s also in tremendous form right now. I sometimes worry about Swiatek against big servers and powerful baseline players, but Sakkari is somewhat similar to her. The Pole is just better and a title more battle-tested. That gives her a mental edge over Sakkari, too.

However, Swiatek is a massive favorite in this match, so you can’t take her on her own. That’s why I’m pairing Swiatek with Alcaraz.

Alcaraz is going to have his work cut out for him against Medvedev. Alcaraz beat the Russian when they met at the ATP Finals in November, but Medvedev beat up on the Spaniard at the US Open. And Medvedev will be looking for revenge from last year’s Indian Wells final, where Alcaraz bullied him off the court. But Alcaraz just looks like he’s on another level at the moment. The Spaniard earned a straight-set win over Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals, and he also dealt Jannik Sinner his first loss of the season in the semis.

Alcaraz has had some issues since winning Wimbledon, but those look like they are in the rearview mirror. He is playing disciplined tennis from the baseline, while also finding spots to dial up the aggression and showcase his world-class talent. Alcaraz also happens to be doing the best work of his career as a server. He’s flirting with a 90.0% hold percentage in 2024, and that’ll make him unbeatable if he maintains it the rest of the year. On top of that, Medvedev has had a lot of trouble holding at Indian Wells so far. He has been broken regularly against weaker opponents than Alcaraz. That’s bad news considering the Spaniard is one of the best returners in the game.

It’s not always fun to jump on favorites, and I’m not a big proponent of the moneyline parlay. However, getting two of the best players in the world in the same one and not having to pay a huge premium for it is rare. So, just play the favorites, and watch their greatness shine through.

Parlay: Swiatek & Alcaraz To Win (-111)