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Between them, the forward-pair, all-time greats, had been crowned the best footballer of the year 13 times

The 30-player shortlist of Ballon d’Or contenders, for the first time since in 2003, did not feature Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, perceptibly marking the end of a duopoly that has defined football this century.

Between them, the forward-pair, all-time greats, had been crowned the best footballer of the year 13 times.

Another eleven times, they have emerged runners-up, often to each other. But riding the sunset of their career, perhaps they would never again kiss the gold-plated, football-shaped trophy again, as a wave of new heirs has sprung.

Barring a devilish late resurgence in their careers, it is unforeseeable that either Ronaldo or Messi would again enter the race. Both have retreated to lesser leagues, the 37-year-old Argentine had endured an injury-ridden season the 39-year-old Portuguese has been belting goals as usual, but is far from the irresistible physical force he once was.

Both are national-team regulars and have set their eyes on the 2026 World Cup, but their impact would be diminished.

Hence, practically, even though the romantics would yearn for a relapse one last time, the Ballon d’Or colossus would never steal the show at the spectacular Théâtre du Châtelet, the Ballon d’Or venue.
The European Championship finals dominate the list, but the domination also owes to their club performances. Seven of Real Madrid’s first eleven snuck into the list, unsurprisingly after their season of treble. Two of them—Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham—are among the favourites.

Four of Manchester City’s indispensables too have forayed into the list. Bayer Leverkusen mainstays, Granit Xhaka, Alejandro Grimaldo and Florian Fritz too are in the fray after the German club’s fairy tale season. Arsenal too have four representatives, even though none are remotely close to winning the prestigious award.
17 attackers, 1 goalkeeper
Goals and assists weigh more than tackles and blocks—out of 68 instances, forwards have scooped it 45 times. In sync with the traditional nomination patterns, attackers (forwards, strikers, wingers and attacking midfielders) consume a large slice of the cake. The lone goalkeeper is Argentina’s Emiliano Martinez, instrumental to his country’s COPA defence and club Aston Villa’s ascent to the Champions league, though he is an outsider.

So are a clutch of high-art defenders, especially Ruben Dias and William Saliba. The odds are overwhelmingly against them—Lev Yashin is the only goalkeeper to have won the award (in 1963) and only three defenders have ever claimed it (Fabio Cannavaro, Matthias Sammer and Franz Beckenbauer twice).
A potential three-way race is underway, between Spanish and Manchester City midfielder Rodri and Real Madrid pair of Vinicius Junior and Jude Bellingham. Rodri, considered the finest player in the world by City manager Pep Guardiola, was the heartbeat of Spain’s Euro triumph and City’s title defence.

A rare blend of intelligence, vision and physicality, he makes the teams he plays tick, and was grossly unfortunate to miss out the year before.

His value can’t be judged by numbers—but by the fact that City didn’t lose a single league or Champions League game when he bossed the midfield.

Rather, all three of City’s league defeats last season arrived when he was injured or suspended.

Vinicius and Bellingham, though, could show more trophies and numbers.

The Brazilian slammed 26 goals (including UCL semifinals and final) and plotted 11 assists in a treble-winning season; Bellingham, donning a variety of roles, belting 27 goals and 15 assists, apart from rescuing England from defeats several times en route to Euro final, was in raging form too.

If Rodri wins, he would be just the fourth central midfield to the honour.
Before realising his dream of joining Real Madrid this season, Kylian Mbappe enjoyed another prolific season, but without trophies to show.

He netted 44 goals and contributed 10 assists, but couldn’t inspire PSG to Champions League glory.

He was lacklustre in the Euros too, where he could muster a lone goal (in 24 attempts) and conceive two assists in five games, as France lost 1-2 to Spain in the semifinal. Maybe, Madrid could inspire him to both his unreciprocated wishes—Champions League and Ballon d’Or glory.

But this time, he would just be part of the A-list audience.